Mortgage Rate Trend Index

Rates will move up ... and down and up and down and up and down again. Volatility is the name of the game right now, with market-moving news and headlines breaking by the moment. Bottom line, if you are currently in the market for a home loan, work with a trusted adviser who has been referred to you, take their recommendations, and don't try to time the market.
Sue Woodard, loan consultant, CTX Mortgage, Minneapolis

It is very difficult to assess the market impact of the rescue bill, which has lead to significant volitility. However, market data indicates that rates should trend lower in the coming months. I believe that is exactly what will happen if inflation stays in check.
Chris Sipe, senior mortgage consultant, Mason Dixon Funding, Frederick, Md.

(Down.) However, not by a large degree. The only threat to this position is any irrational exuberance which may take place in the securities markets. Once again, government intervention has changed all the rules. The TED spread continues to widen. Waiting for the "sideline" money to re-engage the market.
Dan Dowling, senior mortgage adviser/president, United Mortgage Capital Corp., Altamonte Springs, Fla.

Two weeks later, Congress passes the bailout bill and Wall Street and the world don't think it's enough -- great! MBS (mortgage-backed securities) will benefit from the equities plunge and greater liquidity in credit markets.
Sean Rafferty, author of BayAreaMortgageReport.com, San Jose, Calif.

The Fed lowered rates this morning (50 basis points without a having a meeting) as did the Bank of England and European lenders. The inflation component is also at a low of 1.27 percent. Even though the Treasuries and mortgage rates are up today, I expect that rates will decline as the markets settle and the bailout takes shape.
Mitch Ohlbaum, president, Legend Mortgage, Los Angeles

Treasury yields being driven lower are being forced down by large declines in domestic and global equity markets. Each move down suggests the impact on the debt market will be less until a point where debt markets are no longer impacted by equity declines ... after a run like we have seen, this point is where we are today. Rates are expected to increase despite any immediate declines in equities (or adjustment to the Fed target) as -- fundamentally -- concern over access by firms to cash and short term funding equivalents has not been erased. Look at one-month LIBOR for direction.
Cameron Findlay, chief economist, LendingTree.com, Charlotte, N.C.

With the recent cut in the federal funds rate, inflationary indicators will rise and stocks will improve, which will put pressure on the bonds, and rates will rise.
Steve Levitt, vice president of mortgage lending, Guaranteed Rate, Chicago

We are living in truly interesting times. It's becoming increasingly difficult to look out 30 to 45 days with all that's going on and the looming election within that time frame. A struggling economy should lead to lower rates in the future, but this morning's surprise Fed cut (inflationary) typically would signal higher mortgage rates in the future. I think we'll see mortgage bonds trading in a very tight range until they can break out one way or the other. That being said, interest rates are great right now and it is a great time to purchase a home, especially for the first-time buyer.
David Kuiper, mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich.

Investors ditch bonds for stocks.
Dan Green, Mobium Mortgage, author of TheMortgageReports.com, Cincinnati

With so many very large-scale economic problems, it is just a bit difficult to forecast short-term mortgage rate movement, but I will offer that the general trend is to lower mortgage rates. I want to make a few brief comments on some important macroeconomic issues that are not yet getting enough discussion: 1) the liquidity bill still leaves a capital problem for banks 2) the European banking system is in very bad shape. As individual nations guarantee deposits in their country alone, there will be competition for deposits and the EU will be tested as it never has 3) the euro will decline in value vs. the U.S. dollar 4) one factor which has been operating in the background is the unwinding of the yen carry trade. In short, folks had been borrowing money in Japan at very low interest rates and investing it in many things including MBS. We are seeing pressure on the value of all assets, as we have a liquidity crisis and perhaps the first signs of disorder in the unwinding of the yen carry trade.
Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, Residential Pacific Mortgage, San Francisco

The only way to store up the ever increasing mountain of home inventory coming onto the market is more affordable payments. The top-down bailout is an incomplete answer ... bottom-up must follow. Fixed rates at 4 percent here soon!
Jeff Lazerson, president, mortgage grader, Laguna Niguel, Calif.

I'm inclined to say lower because I think that economic activity will continue to show weakness going into the holidays. That said, with all the stimulus that Washington has thrown at the markets between the rescue plan, bailouts and future and pending rate cuts, I think rates will edge slightly higher. Take your Halloween treat today before you get tricked and lock your rate.
Jim Sahnger, mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla.

It is the movement of credit spreads more so than the movement of Treasury yields that is dictating the direction of mortgage rates. The next week or so will produce a slight rebound in spreads and mortgage rates following this week's decline.
Greg McBride, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com

We're in a recession, oil prices are falling, the stock market is tanking.
Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com